Domestic Diethylene Glycol (DEG) Market Dynamics munaGunyana
Sekutanga kwaGunyana, dhizaini yeDEG yemumba yaita kunge yakakwana, uye mutengo wemusika weDEG wakaratidza maitiro ekutanga kuderera, wozokwira, wozodonha zvakare. Mitengo yemusika yakakonzerwa zvakanyanya nekupa uye kudiwa kwezvinhu. Kubva munaGunyana 12, mutengo wekare weDEG mumusika weZhangjiagang waive wakaenzana ne4,467.5 yuan/ton (mutero-waisanganisira), kudzikira kwe2.
Vhiki 1: Kuwanikwa Kwakakwana, Kukura Kwekuda Kusina, Mitengo Iri Kuderera Kudzvinyirira
Mukutanga kwaGunyana, kuuya kwakanyanya kwengarava dzinotakura zvinhu kwakasundira zviteshi zvezvikepe pamusoro pe40,000 matani. Mukuwedzera, mamiriro ekushanda emiti mikuru yeDEG yakaramba yakagadzikana, pamwe nekushanda kwepetroleum-based ethylene glycol plant (chigadzirwa chinokosha chakabatana) yakagadzikana kumativi e62.56%, zvichiita kuti pave nehuwandu hwakakwana hweDEG.
Kudivi rekuda, zvisinei neyakajairwa mwaka wepamusoro wemwaka, kudzoreredzwa kwemitengo yepasi pemvura kwainonoka. Mutengo wekushanda weunsaturated resin industry wakaramba wakagadzikana pane inenge 23%, nepo kushanda kweindasitiri yepolyester kwakangoona kuwedzera kuduku kusvika ku88.16% - kukura kwepasi pe1 muzana. Nekuda kwekuda kuderera pane tarisiro, vatengi vepasi vakaratidza kushinga kusimba kwekudzoreredza, nekutenga kwekutevera kunyanya pamwero wakaderera zvichienderana nekuoma kwekuda. Nekuda kweizvozvo, mutengo wemusika wakadzika kusvika ku4,400 yuan/ton.
Vhiki 2: Kuvandudzwa Kwekutenga Kufarira Pakati Pemitengo Yakaderera, Vanosvika Mitoro Vashoma Vanotyaira Mitengo Kukwira Usati Wadhonzwa
Muvhiki yechipiri yaGunyana, pakatarisana nekumashure kwemitengo yakaderera yeDEG, pamwe nekuramba kudzoreredzwa kwemitengo yakadzika yekushanda, manzwiro evatengi vezasi ekugadzirisa zvakare akavandudzwa kusvika pamwero wakati. Pamusoro pezvo, mamwe mabhizinesi epasi aive ne pre-horidhe (Mid-Autumn Festival) stock-up zvinodiwa, zvichiwedzera kuwedzera kutenga kufarira. Zvichakadaro, kuuya kwezvikepe zvinotakura zvinhu pazviteshi kwakaganhurirwa svondo rino, izvo zvakawedzera kusimudza manzwiro emusika - vane DEG vaive nechido chidiki chekutengesa nemitengo yakaderera, uye mitengo yemusika yakakwira pamwe nekuvandudzwa kwekutenga. Zvisinei, sezvo mitengo yakakwira, kugamuchirwa kwevatengi kuzasi kwakaganhurirwa, uye mutengo wakamira kukwira pa4,490 yuan/ton ndokudzokera shure.
Matarisiro eRamangwana: Mitengo Yemusika Ingangodzikira Zvishoma muVhiki 3, Pavhiki Avhareji Mutengo Unotarisirwa Kugara Kutenderedza 4,465 Yuan/Ton
Zvinotarisirwa kuti mitengo yemisika yemumba inodzikira zvishoma musvondo rinouya, neavhareji mutengo wevhiki wega wega ungangoramba wakatenderedza 4,465 yuan/ton.
Supply Side: Mwero wekushanda wedzimba dzeDEG zvidyarwa zvinotarisirwa kugara zvakatsiga. Kunyangwe paine mishumo pamusika svondo rapfuura yekuti mugadziri mukuru muLianyungang anogona kumisa kutora kwemazuva matatu svondo rinouya, mabhizinesi mazhinji ekuchamhembe akatotakura kare. Kusanganiswa nekuuya kunotarisirwa kuuya kwezvimwe zvikepe zvinotakura zvinhu pazviteshi svondo rinouya, kupihwa kucharamba kwakakwana.
Demand Side: Mamwe mabhizinesi eresin muEast China anogona kuitisa kugadzirwa kwakanyanya nekuda kwekukanganisa kwekufambisa, izvo zvinogona kuwedzera huwandu hwekushanda kweiyo unsaturated resin indasitiri. Nekudaro, zvakakanganiswa nemitengo yakaderera yeDEG yapfuura, mabhizinesi mazhinji akatorongedza; pamwe chete nekupa kwakakwana, kutenga kwakadzika kuchiri kutarisirwa kunge kuri padanho rakaderera zvichienderana nekuoma kuri kuda.
Muchidimbu, mamiriro ekushanda emabhizinesi epasi pakati-kusvika-kupera kwaGunyana achiri kuda kunyatsotariswa. Zvakadaro, pakatarisana nekumashure kwekupihwa kwakakwana, iyo yekugovera-yekuda chimiro icharamba yakasununguka. Zvinofungidzirwa kuti musika wemumba weDEG uchachinja zvishoma svondo rinouya: mutengo wemusika weEast China uchange uri 4,450–4,480 yuan/tani, nemutengo wepakati pevhiki wakapoteredza 4,465 yuan/ton.
Outlook uye Zvinokurudzira zveNguva Yakazotevera
Munguva pfupi (1-2 mwedzi), mitengo yemusika ingangochinja mukati mechikamu che4,300-4,600 yuan/ton. Kana kuunganidzwa kwezvinhu kuchikwira kana kudiwa kusingaratidzi kuvandudzwa, hazvigone kutongerwa kunze kuti mitengo ichadzika kusvika ku4,200 yuan/ton.
Operational Recommendations
Vatengesi: Dzora chiyero chezviyero, tora "kutengesa zvakakwirira uye kutenga zvakaderera" zano, uye nyatsoteerera kune chirimwa chekushanda dynamics uye shanduko mune yechiteshi inventory.
Mafekitori ekudzika: Shandisa danho rekudzoreredza, dzivirira kutenga zvakanyanya, uye chengetedza njodzi dzinokonzerwa nekudonha kwemitengo.
Vanoisa mari: Tarisa padanho rekutsigira re4,300 yuan/tani uye nhanho yekuramba ye4,600 yuan/tani, uye tungamira kutengeserana kwemhando.
Nguva yekutumira: Sep-19-2025