BEIJING, Chikunguru 16, 2025 - Musika weChina dichloromethane (DCM) wakaona kudzikira kwakanyanya muhafu yekutanga ya2025, nemitengo yakadzika kusvika pamakore mashanu, sekureva kwekuongorora kwemaindasitiri. Kuramba kuchiwedzera, kunotungamirwa nekuwedzera hunyanzvi uye kushomeka kwekuda, kunotsanangura mamiriro emusika.
Key H1 2025 Zviitiko:
Mutengo Kuputsika: Avhareji yemutengo wekutengesa yakawanda muShandong wakawira ku2,338 RMB/ton pakasvika Chikumi 30, ichidzika 0.64% gore-pagore (YoY). Mitengo yakakwira pa2,820 RMB/ton mukutanga kwaNdira asi yakadzika kusvika yakadzikira 1,980 RMB/tani mukutanga kwaChivabvu - shanduko ye840 RMB/ton, yakafara zvakanyanya kupfuura 2024.
Kuwedzeredza Kunowedzera: Hunhu hutsva, kunyanya 200,000 matani/gore methane chloride chirimwa muHengyang kutanga muna Kubvumbi, yakasundira yakazara DCM kubuda kune rekodhi 855,700 matani (kusvika 19.36% YoY). High indasitiri yekushanda mitengo (77-80%) uye yakawedzera DCM kugadzirwa kugadzirisa kurasikirwa mune co-chigadzirwa Chloroform yakawedzera kuwedzera kumanikidza kwekupa.
Demand Growth Falls Short: Nepo core downstream refrigerant R32 yakashanda zvakanaka (inotungamirirwa ne quotas yekugadzira uye yakasimba air-conditioning inoda pasi perubatsiro rwehurumende), chinyakare chekunyungudutsa chinodiwa chakaramba chisina simba. Kuderera kwehupfumi hwepasi rose, kusawirirana kwekutengeserana kweSino-US, uye kutsiva neyakachipa ethylene dichloride (EDC) yakadzikira kudiwa. Exports yakakura 31.86% YoY kusvika 113,000 matani, ichipa imwe zororo asi isina kukwana kuenzanisa musika.
Profitability Yakakwira Asi Inodonha: Pasinei nekudonha kwemitengo yeDCM neChloroform, avhareji yepurofiti yeindasitiri yakasvika 694 RMB/ton (kukwira 112.23% YoY), ichitsigirwa nemitengo yakadzikira zvakanyanya (liquid chlorine avhareji -168 RMB/ton). Nekudaro, purofiti yakadzikira zvakanyanya mushure meMay, ichinyura pazasi pe100 RMB/ton muna Chikumi.
H2 2025 Outlook: Inoenderera Kudzvinyirira & Yakaderera Mitengo
Kupa Kuti Uwedzere Kuwedzera: Hunhu hutsva hwakakosha hunotarisirwa: Shandong Yonghao & Tai (100,000 matani / gore muQ3), Chongqing Jialihe (50,000 matani / gore pakupera kwegore), uye inogona kutangazve yeDongying Jinmao Aluminium (120,000 matani / gore). Yese inoshanda methane chloride kugona inogona kusvika 4.37 miriyoni matani / gore.
Demand Constraints: R32 inoda inotarisirwa kupfava mushure meH1 yakasimba. Kudiwa kwezvinonyungudutsa kwechinyakare kunopa tariro shoma. Makwikwi kubva kune yakaderera-mutengo EDC ichaenderera mberi.
Cost Support Limited: Liquid chlorine mitengo inofanotaura kuti icharamba isina kunaka uye isina simba, ichipa kukwira kushoma kwemutengo, asi zvichigona kupa pasi pamitengo yeDCM.
Mutengo Forecast: Iyo yakakosha oversupply haigone kurerutsa. Mitengo yeDCM inotarisirwa kuramba yakasungwa pamazinga akaderera muH2 yose, ine mwaka inogona kuderera muna Chikunguru uye yakakwirira munaGunyana.
Mhedziso: Musika wekuChina weDCM wakatarisana nekudzvinyirirwa kwakasimba muna 2025. Nepo H1 yakaona rekodhi yakabuda uye purofiti kunyangwe mitengo yakaderera, maonero eH2 anonongedza kuenderera mberi kwekuwedzera kwekuwedzera uye kudiwa kwakanyarara, kuteya mitengo pamazinga akaderera ekare. Misika yekunze inoramba iri nzira yakakosha kune vanogadzira mudzimba.
Nguva yekutumira: Jul-16-2025